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Blog Directory ID: 10464

Blog URL: http://centreofthebox.blogspot.com/

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Blog Description: This is a soccer blog with a statistical focus. I analyze the match results of major soccer leagues, such as the Premier League, and project the final results for the season. If you want to know who is going to win your league, check out my blog!

Blog Category: Soccer Blogs

Blog Owner: Bill Fish

Blog Added: April 07, 2011 02:33:14 PM

Audience Rating: General Audience

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Blogger/BlogSpot

Blog Country:

United States

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Latest Blog Post from Centre of the Box

English League Championship Final SRS Rankings and Playoff Predictions

Here are the final rankings for the Championship:

Team	MOV	SOS	SRS
Queens Park Rangers	0.848	0.000	0.848
Swansea City	0.587	0.000	0.587
Reading	0.565	0.000	0.565
Norwich City	0.543	0.000	0.543
Cardiff City	0.478	0.000	0.478
Nottingham Forest	0.413	0.000	0.413
Millwall	0.304	0.000	0.304
Leeds United	0.239	0.000	0.239
Watford	0.130	0.000	0.130
Leicester City	0.109	0.000	0.109
Burnley	0.087	0.000	0.087
Hull City	0.022	0.000	0.022
Middlesbrough	0.000	0.000	0.000
Bristol City	-0.065	0.000	-0.065
Coventry City	-0.087	0.000	-0.087
Ipswich Town	-0.130	0.000	-0.130
Portsmouth	-0.152	0.000	-0.152
Barnsley	-0.239	0.000	-0.239
Derby County	-0.283	0.000	-0.283
Crystal Palace	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Preston North End	-0.543	0.000	-0.543
Doncaster Rovers	-0.565	0.000	-0.565
Sheffield United	-0.761	0.000	-0.761
Scunthorpe United	-0.957	0.000	-0.957

You will notice that the strength of schedule (SOS) for all teams is now zero. This is because every team has played every other team an equal number of times (twice). In general, SOS will converge towards zero as the season progresses. Also, whenever a league has a balanced schedule, like the Championship, it will also converge to zero.

After the jump, my playoff predictions:

For this week's games here are my predictions:

Nottingham Forest 2 Swansea City 1
Reading 2 Cardiff City 2

Despite predicting a loss in the first match, I predict that Swansea will come back to defeat Forest and carry through to the final. I'm picking Reading to defeat Cardiff in aggregate and face the Swans in the final. Based on the SRS rankings above, I am now projecting Swansea to defeat Reading in the Playoff final.

MLS Weekend Wrap Up and Midweek Predictions

To quote another famous writer, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" for the MLS this weekend. The best of times were on Saturday night which featured a showdown between two of the best teams in the league, Los Angeles and New York. Each team is led by a superstar, Landon Donovan for LA and Thierry Henry for New York. Both Henry (video) and Donovan (video) scored in the match which ended up in a 1-1 draw.

The worst of times featured a serious injury to Real Salt Lake midfielder Javier Morales. Hopefully the casual fans who tuned in for the LA/New York match didn't also watch the three 0-0 draws that were played earlier in the day.

There are three midweek games on Wednesday. Here are my predictions for the trio:

Philadelphia 1 Los Angeles 0
FC Dallas 3 Toronto FC 1
Vancouver 2 San Jose 2

After the jump I will review my predictions from last weekend.

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Real Salt Lake	2	Chivas USA	0	Real Salt Lake	1	Chivas USA	0	10
Toronto FC	0	Houston	1	Toronto FC	2	Houston	1	-10
D.C. United	2	FC Dallas	2	D.C. United	0	FC Dallas	0	20
Columbus	1	Seattle	0	Columbus	1	Seattle	1	-10
New England	0	Colorado	1	New England	0	Colorado	0	-10
Chicago	2	Vancouver	1	Chicago	0	Vancouver	0	-10
Los Angeles	0	New York	1	Los Angeles	1	New York	1	-10
							Total	-20

Yikes! Only eight goals scored in seven matches. MLS and MLB now have scoring droughts in common. I predicted 2 of 7 outcomes correctly but no final scores.

Premier League Weekend Wrap Up

Manchester United is now on the brink of clinching the title after their home victory over Chelsea. With a 6-point lead United needs merely one point in the next two matches to regain their status as Premier League champions.

Liverpool continues their scorching hot play as they destroyed Fulham 5-2. This victory combined with Tottenham's draw against Blackpool pushes the Reds into 5th place which is the final European spot in the league.

At the bottom of the table, Wolves jumped outside of the relegation zone with a 3-1 win over West Brom. Despite the loss, 13th-placed West Brom is safe from relegation, but every team below them has some work to do if they want to return to the Premier next year.

After the jump I will recap my predictions from the weekend.

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Aston Villa	1	Wigan Athletic	1	Aston Villa	1	Wigan Athletic	1	30
Bolton Wanderers	2	Sunderland	1	Bolton Wanderers	1	Sunderland	2	-10
Everton	1	Manchester City	1	Everton	2	Manchester City	1	-10
Newcastle United	2	Birmingham City	1	Newcastle United	2	Birmingham City	1	30
West Ham United	2	Blackburn Rovers	2	West Ham United	1	Blackburn Rovers	1	20
Tottenham Hotspur	2	Blackpool	1	Tottenham Hotspur	1	Blackpool	1	-10
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	West Bromwich Albion	2	Wolverhampton Wanderers	3	West Bromwich Albion	1	-10
Stoke City	1	Arsenal	2	Stoke City	3	Arsenal	1	-10
Manchester United	2	Chelsea	1	Manchester United	2	Chelsea	1	30
Fulham	2	Liverpool	1	Fulham	2	Liverpool	5	-10
							Total	50

Although I only predicted 4 of 10 outcomes, 3 of them had the correct score. Quality over quantity :)

There is one midweek match on Tuesday. Here is my prediction:

Manchester City 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1

League Championship Weekend Wrapup

The Championship finished their regular season on Saturday and congratulations to Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City who earned automatic promotions to the Premier League. QPR finished first with 88 points, 4 points ahead of the Canaries. QPR was awaiting word from the Football Association which was ruling on irregularities concerning the economic rights of player Alejandro Faurlin. There was the possibility of a points deduction which could have cost them the title. However, the FA fined QPR instead so the Rangers get to bring home the trophy.

Rangers return to the Premier for the first time since relegation following the 1996 season. For Norwich they last played in the top flight in 2005. Since then they struggled and were actually relegated into League One, one level below the Championship, after the 2009 season. They bounced back and won the League one title in 2010 and then earned a second consecutive promotion this season.

The playoffs are all set. Swansea City will face Nottingham Forest while Cardiff City takes on Reading. Playoffs schedule can be found here. Swansea managed to get third place, finishing ahead of their Welsh rivals Cardiff based on goal differential. Nottingham's win over Crystal Palace gave them the points they needed to stay ahead of Leeds United who beat QPR on Saturday.

The Championship bids farewell to the three relegated teams, Preston North End, Sheffield United and Scunthorpe United. Preston had the longest current tenure at this level of any team in the league, having been here for 11 consecutive seasons. Scunthorpe's stay was brief, just one season as they return back to League One after earning promotion from there last year. Sheffield United ends a four-season run after relegation from the Premier League and will also be ~~returning~~ dropping to League One. Moving up from that level will be champions Brighton & Hove Albion and runner-up Southampton. The third spot will be filled by the winner of the League One playoffs.

After the jump I will review the results of my weekend predictions.

Predicted Score				Actual Score				Points
Norwich City	2	Coventry City	1	Norwich City	2	Coventry City	2	-10
Reading	2	Derby County	1	Reading	2	Derby County	1	30
Leicester City	2	Ipswich Town	1	Leicester City	4	Ipswich Town	2	10
Queens Park Rangers	2	Leeds United	1	Queens Park Rangers	1	Leeds United	2	-10
Burnley	1	Cardiff City	1	Burnley	2	Cardiff City	2	20
Barnsley	1	Millwall	1	Barnsley	1	Millwall	0	-10
Bristol City	1	Hull City	2	Bristol City	3	Hull City	0	-10
Crystal Palace	1	Nottingham Forest	1	Crystal Palace	0	Nottingham Forest	3	-10
Scunthorpe United	1	Portsmouth	2	Scunthorpe United	1	Portsmouth	1	-10
Swansea City	2	Sheffield United	0	Swansea City	4	Sheffield United	0	10
Preston North End	1	Watford	2	Preston North End	3	Watford	1	-10
Middlesbrough	2	Doncaster Rovers	1	Middlesbrough	3	Doncaster Rovers	0	10
							Total	10

I basically broke even in my final week of predictions. Guessed 5 of 12 outcomes correctly and one score exactly. Later this week I will post my predictions for the playoffs.

MLS Prediction 5/7

Excluding Friday night's match because I'm behind so these predictions will be for Saturday's matches only:

Real Salt Lake 2 Chivas USA 0
Toronto FC 0 Houston 1
D.C. United 2 FC Dallas 2
Columbus 1 Seattle 0
New England 0 Colorado 1
Chicago 2 Vancouver 1
Los Angeles 0 New York 1

Premier League Predictions 5/7

Way behind in my posts this week. Day job keeping me busy plus wedding preparations taking up most of my time lately. Here are my predictions for this weekend's matches:

Aston Villa 1 Wigan 1
Bolton 2 Sunderland 1
Everton 1 Man City 1
Newcastle 2 Birmingham 1
West Ham 2 Blackburn 2
Tottenham 2 Blackpool 1
Wolves 2 WBA 2
Stoke City 1 Arsenal 2
Man Utd 2 Chelsea 1
Fulham 2 Liverpool 1

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